Shot list — openai-missed-revenue-ipo
Generated 2026-04-29 10:08 PDT · 51 cues · alignment 100% · 25fps · timeline starts 01:00:00:00
Show
Talking head · 4
Voiceover · 6
Cut · 3
B-roll (video) · 14
Asset (still/logo/cap.) · 7
Stat card · 17
01:00:00:00
Talking head
[TALKING HEAD — hook]
… The Wall Street Journal dropped a story on April 28, 2026 that rattled every AI- …
01:00:26:03
STAT
[STAT CARD: "Report: targets missed in early 2026"]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:26:03
STAT
[STAT CARD: "$852B — OpenAI's March 2026 valuation"]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:26:03
STAT
[STAT CARD: "$122B raised in one private round"]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:26:03
CUT
[CUT]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:26:03
VOICEOVER
[VOICEOVER — scene 1]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:26:03
B-roll
[B-ROLL: finance-charts]
… Oracle fell 7.7 percent. CoreWeave fell 7.4 percent. SoftBank, one of OpenAI's l …
01:00:55:16
STAT
[STAT CARD: "Oracle: fell 7.7% same afternoon"]
… Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and the chip suppliers were all making a version of …
01:00:55:16
STAT
[STAT CARD: "CoreWeave: fell 7.4% same day"]
… Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and the chip suppliers were all making a version of …
01:00:55:16
STAT
[STAT CARD: "SoftBank: lost ~10% in one session"]
… Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and the chip suppliers were all making a version of …
01:00:55:16
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:openai]
… Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and the chip suppliers were all making a version of …
01:01:17:03
B-roll
[B-ROLL: data-center]
… The valuation that OpenAI carried into this week, $852 billion, was built on Cha …
01:01:43:01
STAT
[STAT CARD: "OpenAI target: $13B in 2025"]
… According to the Journal's reporting, OpenAI missed multiple monthly internal re …
01:01:43:01
STAT
[STAT CARD: "2026 revenue target: $30B"]
… According to the Journal's reporting, OpenAI missed multiple monthly internal re …
01:01:43:01
STAT
[STAT CARD: "$280B revenue target by 2030"]
… According to the Journal's reporting, OpenAI missed multiple monthly internal re …
01:01:43:01
B-roll
[B-ROLL: ai-abstract]
… According to the Journal's reporting, OpenAI missed multiple monthly internal re …
01:02:20:04
STAT
[STAT CARD: "900M WAU — missed 1B target"]
… OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly delivered a direct warning to executives and b …
01:02:20:04
B-roll
[B-ROLL: news-studio]
… OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly delivered a direct warning to executives and b …
01:03:03:02
B-roll
[B-ROLL: finance-charts]
… The fault line runs all the way to the CEO-CFO relationship. Sam Altman wants to …
01:03:34:24
STAT
[STAT CARD: "Friar prefers 2027 IPO timeline"]
… Markets did not read that as a denial. They read it as containment. …
01:03:34:24
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:openai]
… Markets did not read that as a denial. They read it as containment. …
01:03:39:17
VOICEOVER END
[/VOICEOVER]
… Now let's go through the numbers, because they carry the weight of this story. …
01:03:39:17
Talking head
[TALKING HEAD — transition]
… Now let's go through the numbers, because they carry the weight of this story. …
01:03:44:13
CUT
[CUT]
… OpenAI's annualized revenue sits at approximately $25 billion. Its internal targ …
01:03:44:13
VOICEOVER
[VOICEOVER — scene 2]
… OpenAI's annualized revenue sits at approximately $25 billion. Its internal targ …
01:03:44:13
B-roll
[B-ROLL: finance-charts]
… OpenAI's annualized revenue sits at approximately $25 billion. Its internal targ …
01:04:21:23
STAT
[STAT CARD: "$25B cash burn = $25B revenue in 2026"]
… In 2025, OpenAI recorded $13 billion in full-year revenue against $8 billion in …
01:04:21:23
B-roll
[B-ROLL: data-center]
… In 2025, OpenAI recorded $13 billion in full-year revenue against $8 billion in …
01:04:42:10
STAT
[STAT CARD: "2025: $8B net losses on $13B revenue"]
… The compute commitments represent the most concentrated risk in the entire pictu …
01:04:42:10
B-roll
[B-ROLL: code-terminal]
… The compute commitments represent the most concentrated risk in the entire pictu …
01:05:21:21
STAT
[STAT CARD: "$600B in signed compute deals"]
… On the user side, OpenAI has 50 million paying consumer subscribers and 9 millio …
01:05:21:21
B-roll
[B-ROLL: ai-abstract]
… On the user side, OpenAI has 50 million paying consumer subscribers and 9 millio …
01:06:01:21
STAT
[STAT CARD: "OpenAI: 50M paying consumer subscribers"]
… The competitive picture compounds the problem. Anthropic crossed $30 billion in …
01:06:01:21
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:anthropic]
… The competitive picture compounds the problem. Anthropic crossed $30 billion in …
01:06:33:06
STAT
[STAT CARD: "80% of Anthropic rev from enterprise"]
… Google's Gemini has been pulling consumer users away from ChatGPT, contributing …
01:06:33:06
STAT
[STAT CARD: "Enterprise: spend >$1M/yr annually"]
… Google's Gemini has been pulling consumer users away from ChatGPT, contributing …
01:06:33:06
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:google]
… Google's Gemini has been pulling consumer users away from ChatGPT, contributing …
01:06:50:16
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:microsoft]
… On April 27, 2026, one day before the WSJ story ran, Microsoft announced it was …
01:07:21:05
VOICEOVER END
[/VOICEOVER]
… So where does all of this leave things? …
01:07:21:05
Talking head
[TALKING HEAD — transition]
… So where does all of this leave things? …
01:07:23:17
CUT
[CUT]
… OpenAI is not failing. The $122 billion raised in March gives it real runway. It …
01:07:23:17
VOICEOVER
[VOICEOVER — scene 3]
… OpenAI is not failing. The $122 billion raised in March gives it real runway. It …
01:07:23:17
Asset
[B-ROLL: company-logo:openai]
… OpenAI is not failing. The $122 billion raised in March gives it real runway. It …
01:07:38:06
B-roll
[B-ROLL: finance-charts]
… But a $852 billion valuation was not priced on competitive. It was priced on ine …
01:07:50:19
B-roll
[B-ROLL: news-studio]
… The IPO timing is the sharpest pressure point. If Altman pushes ahead with a Q4 …
01:08:14:02
B-roll
[B-ROLL: courtroom]
… Running alongside all of this is the Musk v. Altman lawsuit. Elon Musk is in act …
01:08:37:08
B-roll
[B-ROLL: finance-charts]
… The $600 billion in compute commitments is the figure that concentrates the down …
01:09:03:14
Asset
[B-ROLL: stills:openai-partners]
… OpenAI spokesperson Steve Sharpe said after the report that "our enterprise busi …
01:09:30:18
B-roll
[B-ROLL: ai-abstract]
… The joint Altman-Friar statement called the reporting ridiculous. It declared th …
01:09:43:04
VOICEOVER END
[/VOICEOVER]
… When the most valuable private company in the world calls a reported revenue sho …
01:09:43:04
Talking head
[TALKING HEAD — sign-off]
… When the most valuable private company in the world calls a reported revenue sho …